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Which way will it go?

October 01, 2009
TOPICS: Natural gas
Which way are natural gas prices going? It depends on who you ask.

A pair of speakers at a Fort Worth energy conference said gas prices are going up after a 14 month plunge, and prices could rebound to as much as $7.50 in 2010. But Barclays Capital has lowered it's 2010 forecast to an average price of $5.05

From the Fort Worth Star-Telegram:

David Pursell, a managing director for research for Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co., said the Houston-based energy investment firm is predicting that natural gas prices will rebound to $7.50 in 2010—more than double what prices have been for much of this year. Gas prices are expressed in terms of a volume of 1,000 cubic feet or an energy level of 1 million British thermal units, which are roughly similar in price.

On a longer-term basis, prices could moderate to the $6 to $6.50 level, Pursell said in a speech at the Unconventional Gas International Conference & Exhibition at the Fort Worth Convention Center.

Don Warlick, president of Warlick International, an energy intelligence firm, was also bullish.

He said future demand should increase as a result of an ample supply and the movement toward cleaner energy, increasing its desirability as a fuel for electric power generation compared to more-polluting coal.

By the end of the first quarter of 2010 — only six months from now — gas prices could rebound to $6, Warlick said.

The commodities research unit of Barclays Capital was less bullish, however, lowering its 2010 gas-price forecast to an annual average of only $5.05 per million BTU.
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